Judging by Bangkok’s rapidly changing skyline over the last few years there’s plenty of yearning for a slice of condo living. But with new high-end high-rises popping up on every street corner, the question is, how long can the good times last?

Well it seems that most property experts believe the market, specifically the condominium market, still has some room to grow. “At present it’s still sustainable. This year the supply has almost doubled but still there are many people buying,” says Dr. Sopon Pornchokchai, President of the Agency for Real Estate Affairs, an independent property consultancy firm.

His view is one shared by many in the industry and, perhaps more importantly, is backed up by the statistics. “There’s nothing to worry about. The people expressing concerns aren’t looking at the real numbers,” agrees Athip Peechanont, former Chairman of the Thai Condo Association and Managing Director of Supalai. “90% of completed condos have already been sold, and 70-80% of those currently under construction have been booked, which shows there’s no oversupply,” he points out.

Khun Kavin Kanjanapas, Executive Director of Abstracts, the property development branch of the BTS, confirms they have seen similar kinds of sales figures on their residential projects in Sukhumvit 61 and Phahonyothin in 2010 and will be rolling out new projects at Phaya Thai and Chatuchak in 2011.

It’s all particularly healthy when you consider that developers actually only need to sell around 65-70% of units to make money. Yet while people might still be buying condos now, it does seem that this demand isn’t going to last forever. “Our concern is that if the number of condominiums entering the market continues at these rates, then there could be a real glut in the market in 2012 or 2013,” says Dr. Sopon.

This is especially true when you consider that many projects were actually put on hold during the recent political unrest, leading to a back up of condos coming to market in the next couple of years. There are also signs of an oversupply taking place in certain parts of town like Rathchada-Thapra, On Nut and Sukhumvit.

Developers certainly seem to be starting to react accordingly. “The property market in 2011 will definitely see a shift in demand from condominiums because of oversupply in the last two years. Low-rise residences—both single detached houses and townhouses—will be back in vogue,” states Khun Kavin.

But it’s not just an oversupply driving this trend. Continuing political and economic uncertainty and rising inflation are all tempering long-term consumer confidence, especially at the higher end. Add in the Bank of Thailand’s measures to cap the value of loans people can take out on condominiums and it’s no surprise that developers are looking at alternate markets and looking further out of town.

“Major players will launch units to tap a high demand in the low end of the market stemming largely from lower land costs and the availability of large numbers of plots” says Khun Kavin.

Couple that with the long awaited opening of extensions to the BTS Lines (the Soi Bearing extension for example is finally due in August this year) and, who knows, in five years suburban low rise living might be the norm.

HOW TO:  Buy a Condo

1.  “Only buy what you can pay for now. Don’t worry too much about the future. So don’t buy a two or three bedroom place if you don’t have a family yet. It will be too much of a burden.” Athip Peechanont, Managing Director, Supalai

2.  “Consider the secondhand market, as it’s cheaper and there is very little depreciation in second hand units. You can also get a much better feel for the maintenance, facilities and services offered from your condo rather than properties that are still being built.” Dr. Sopon Pornchokchai, President of the Agency for Real Estate Affairs

3.  “Consider the facilities inside and outside the project, where can you eat, where can you buy food? Is it near a hospital, does it offer good security? Is it easy to get around? Make sure it fits your lifestyle.”Athip Peechanont, Managing Director, Supalai

4.  “You can see [the developer’s] early projects to consider how they manage the project, the administration, and the financial side. Another fact to consider is the function and design that has to work well whatever the weather. Does the interior, parking, and other facilities give you what you need.” Sansiri